CRYPTO ALMANAC
August 2026 Update
Monthly Market Outlook
SNAPSHOT
Long-Term Outlook
EARLY
Current Approach
PATIENT / BUILDING
Buy Multiplier
0.5×
Profit Taking
NOT YET
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Previous Month: Patient / Building — 0.5× Reduced Buying
This Month: Patient / Building — 0.5× Reduced Buying
Change: NoneBitcoin remains within the range I'm watching. My long-term outlook, 0.5× buy multiplier, and profit-taking approach remain unchanged.
BITCOIN WATCH
What I'm Watching NextBased on the previous cycle pattern, I believe Bitcoin could still have roughly two months of downside or sideways-to-lower price action remaining.$57,748 — Key SupportThis is an important area I'm watching. A break below it could open the door to lower prices and potentially create a more attractive long-term accumulation opportunity.$82,814 — Key Strength LevelA sustained move above this area would make me reconsider my cautious near-term outlook.
MY APPROACH THIS MONTH
0.5x- REDUCED BUYINGI'm currently buying more cautiously while I wait to see if Bitcoin offers a more attractive opportunity later this year.For new money I'm looking to invest, I'm currently putting about half of my normal amount to work and keeping the rest available for potentially better prices.For example:
$100 planned → $50 invested / $50 held
$250 planned → $125 invested / $125 held
$500 planned → $250 invested / $250 heldI'm continuing my existing recurring investments as usual. This only reflects how I'm approaching additional purchases right now.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY VIEW?
My current outlook assumes Bitcoin continues to follow a similar cycle pattern to previous years.A weekly close above $82,814 would make me consider whether the cycle low is already in and the next expansion cycle is beginning earlier than expected.If the historical pattern materially breaks, I'll adjust my outlook rather than force the market to fit it.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OTHER CRYPTOCURRENCIES
Bitcoin remains the primary market guiding my broader crypto outlook, but I'm also watching how larger crypto assets behave as the current cycle develops.For assets I'm interested in, including ETH, XRP and SOL, I'm currently maintaining the same 0.5× approach I'm using for Bitcoin. I'm staying involved while keeping additional capital available in case the broader market presents more attractive opportunities later this year.As conditions change, I may adjust my approach to individual assets separately. I'll include those changes here when I believe one asset deserves a different approach from the broader crypto market.
THE BOTTOM LINE
THESIS: UNCHANGEDStill early. Still patient. Still building.
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